Some institutions had earlier expected China’ steel consumption peak to come in around 2018, but expectations have changed with the accelerating pace of transformation in Chinese economy.

Mr Zhong Shaoliang, chief representative in Beijing Office of the World Steel Association, said that China's steel consumption is expected to peak in around 2015 amid economic transformation in the country.
 
Mr Zhong said that "Some consider the drop to be short term, but we tend to believe that it might be a trend given the current situation at home and abroad. China's steel demand growth will slow down significantly and even stagnate just in two years' time."
 
Chinese economy has entered a new normal state, shifting from high speed to mid to high speed growth, which will directly drag down steel consumption growth in the country. New normal also means that China will shift from investment-driven to consumption oriented economic development, while 50% of steel demand is related to investment and construction activity.
 
According to worldsteel data, crude steel production of China reached 779 million tonnes in 2013, ranking first. Data showed China's crude steel production rose 2.6% YoY to 550 million tonnes in the first eight months of this year. However, apparent consumption only hit 500 million tonnes after deducting net export volume, down 0.3% from a year ago, the first decline since 2000.

China's steel capacity has exceeded 1.1 billion tonnes and excess capacity will further aggravate in the future amid decelerating demand growth, which will be a stern test for Chinese steel mills.